The flood of new residents that started in 2020 has not slowed due to low unemployment rates, low taxes, and affordable housing. It has been one of if not the most competitive markets in the US in 2021. Some investors flip houses, others wholesale them. This would place . Yeah, thats a valid point, Wood replied, drawing laughs from the crowd. Wood and Eskic expect a staggering 40% to 50% drop in the number of new homes produced in Utah over the next two years. All areas saw average market time rise compared to the third quarter of 2022 as well as the fourth quarter of 2021. After the next seven months, the median price fell by 14% to $485,829, erasing month-over-month percent increases until "finally turning negative 2.1% in December," Wood wrote in his report. Love hiking, biking, or camping? However, as the level of Utah housing prices outstripped the national average, the demand is bound to decline as salaries are not increasing nearly as fast as property prices. A high or growing percentage of homes selling above list price indicates that the housing market is competitive and bidding wars are becoming more common. One will often find him drawing, doing toy photography, or dabbling in other geeky stuff when he's not helping investors make smarter decisions. A bubble is highly unlikely at this point in time because a bubble is defined as a prolonged period of actual price decline, not moderation or deceleration. Other Regional Data. Right now, its close to 5. The top 5 states homebuyers searched to move to were Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, and South Carolina while California, New York, District Of Columbia, Illinois, and Massachusetts were the top 5 states homebuyers searched to move from. At the time of the writing, the Utah housing market remains a sellers market as the available inventory is not keeping up with the demand despite an increase in the number of houses for sale and months of housing supply. can also indicate whether homes are lingering on the market or being sold faster than sellers are listing them. The strong demand and limited supply of home inventory will push against price declines and keep home prices relatively stable over time. In 2022, that was Joseph Brancas reality, along with plenty of other Utahns who wanted to join the mad dash to homeownership, but ultimately ended up walking away. And while the days of sub-3% rates are gone, they are not expected to go exorbitantly high. Even with the recent slowdown, a correctly priced home will sell, and it will sell with record equity growth over the last 10-year average. In Utah, housing prices have begun to decline, down from their peak in May, when the median sales price of Salt Lake County homes was $565,600. But by the end of the year, well stabilize and well be flat, Wood said. Even with todays rising mortgage rates, it will continue to be the time to buy a house in Utah. In December 2022, Cache County home prices were up 2.1% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $444K. In January 2023, home prices in Utah were down 3.0% compared to last year, selling for a median priceof $518,200. Even a two-year period will historically yield an increase in equity in the Utah housing market. As for interest rates, Wood noted forecasts vary widely, anywhere from 5% to 9%, but he personally expects rates to bounce between 6.5% and 7.5% in 2023. Therefore, although Utah home prices may decline in the coming months, the Utah housing market should remain relatively strong and correct itself for more sustainable growth. Just to give you an idea, Utah Association of Realtors president Dave Robison said that in-migration is hugely impacting Utah real estate. Nationally, a growing number of experts and firms are predicting U.S. home prices will fall, some expecting slight, single-digit drops, while others expect prices to fall by double digits, perhaps even over 20%. Utah faces a shortage of 31,000 homes. The latest housing data shows the median priced home in Utah's most populated county increased to $550,000 in the third quarter of 2021. Where do we go from here? This was marginally below the rate of the prior year but impressive all the same. Its more likely that as mortgage rates continue to decline, the market will find a solid floor in the summer and prices will resume their upward trend as we move into the fall. Park City Data If you are using a screen reader, or having trouble reading this website, please call Redfin Customer Support for help at 1-844-759-7732. How can I get a free valuation of a home in Utah? Are there enough homes for sale to meet buyer demand? Additional links: Historical Utah Data All Rights Reserved, The great housing market reset of 2022: The year the Fed had no mercy, U.S. navigating pandemic housing bubble, Fed chairman says. It is likely that home buyers are waiting for asking prices to fall further and hoping that mortgage rates do the same. Thats a good thing, because they were overpriced anyway, right? Perry said. However, prices are still significantly higher and homes are selling faster compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels, noted Daniel Hale, Realtor.coms chief economist. The 2021 Utah housing market will be long remembered for its record-breaking price increases. The Ha read more, Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! So from that affordability perspective, I think its going to keep the market from accelerating back to have a more positive price appreciation., Wood said thats a good point, but added the 70s and early 80s saw interest rates that hit as high as 18%. While home prices have decreased about 3% month over month, home prices are up nearly 9% year over year in August. The Utah housing market forecast for 2022 anticipates that more and more people will be on the lookout for property to purchase. Therefore, the impact of increasing interest rates has been felt more in the state than in other parts of the country. (2023), Cost of Living in Hawaii: What You Need to Know (2023), How to Find the Best Mortgage Rates (2023), Outdoor activity opportunities are unlimited. All rights reserved. Next came Sacramento, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tampa. They also anticipate prices to grow 8.5% and sales to grow 15.2%. Book an appointment today. So (many have) stopped new construction and consequently weve seen new production just fall off, Wood said. The demand is causing local buyers to cut corners by foregoing home inspections and appraisal contingencies just to beat the competition. We dont have that.. Hes predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. As of November, that figure was down to $569,000 14% lower than the May peak but still 4% higher than in November of 2021. The cops came, quipped Dejan Eskic, senior research fellow at the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, one of Utahs leading housing experts. Join Us 1 housing market in the nation for 2022. For the average mortgage, the difference translates into approximately a $1000 difference for a similar home, representing tens of thousands of dollars over the life of the loan. After the next seven months, the median price fell by 14% to $485,829, erasing month-over-month percent increases until finally turning negative 2.1% in December, Wood wrote in his report. Home sales: 3,219 26.7% less than a year ago. I expect the region will continue to see downward pressure on home prices, but a major correction is unlikely. Both bearded men chuckled, along with laughs and applause from the audience. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. We go back to the 70s, for example, Eskic said. There was a 98.0% sale-to-list price, down 2.7 points year over year. Utah benefits from a strong economy, and, despite Utah housing prices being higher than the national average, there is still more demand for houses than available inventory. Utahs economy continues to add jobs, but the pace of growth has started to slow. The direction and pace at which housing supply changes indicate whether the options for buyers are increasing or decreasing. This is the MOST ACCURATE UTAH Housing Market Forecast for 2022. There were only 31.8% of homes that had price drops, up from 10.0% of homes in January last year. Even this far into 2022 with the mortgage rate hikes, Utah remains one of the hottest markets. Contact Us, Real Estate Blog Home > Blog > Market News & Trends > Utah Housing Market- Trends and Predictions for 2022. Price forecasts for this year (are) somewhat uncertain, Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, told the Salt Lake Board of Realtors crowd on Friday. This was down 45% compared to the same period the previous year and down 27.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022. Like, they were not outrageous houses or homes that would have been that (price) five or 10 years ago.. The home was 2,500 square feet, four bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, sat on a quarter acre lot, and they lived well within their means on a $1,000 a month mortgage payment. In 2021, buyers were getting raked over the coals, having to give a years supply of pizza with their offer. Thats not hyperbole, he said. So youll find the deals with the homebuilders, but youre not going to find the deals on (existing) homes, Eskic said. Copyright 2023 Deseret News Publishing Company. Once the market rebounds, buyers can be in an even more powerful position when the market shifts back to a more lopsided sellers market. Wasatch County makes its way to our Utah housing market forecast for 2022 because it has attracted big-city folks from San Francisco and New York for relocation. , Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. Median List Price $524,900 $285/sqft Based on all homes listed in January 2023. Price growth rates, especially in 2021, were nothing short of astounding. If they hadnt been so aggressive in 2020 and 2021, wed be talking about unemployment now rather than inflation. He also noted it was really Congress that juiced the economy with so much one-time stimulus money, not the Fed. Although predicting the future is always an exercise of caution, it is unlikely that the Utah housing market will collapse in 2023. After seven years of Salt Lake County sales averaging 18,000 homes, the high prices of 2023 will mean sales will not top 13,000, he predicted, and likely range between 11,000 to 12,000. So hire an experienced top-producing agent to help you price, market, and negotiate the best deal possible. The direction and pace at which home prices are changing are indicators of the strength of the housing market and whether homes are becoming more or less affordable. The party was over. Inventory is on its way up, with 13,795 homes for sale in September 2022, 25,3% more than the previous year. If you ask Perry, they have a silver lining. AirDNA vs. Mashvisor: Which One Is the Better Source of Airbnb Data? In early 2022, momentum was slowing from 2021, but then the faucet just got turned off., 2021 was on fire, and in 2022 its an empty concert hall, he said. Utah hosted the 2002 Winter games, and Utah is looking to once again host these games once again. We break down our data by county, but we cover major cities in this region including Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, and West Jordan. To Eskic, 2022 was the year of the Fed. In his mind, it was a federal miscalculation to raise borrowing rates so high and so fast after two runaway years. Realtor.com anticipates Salt Lake City metro home-price growth will be at 8.5% and home-sales growth at 15.2% in 2022. , The direction and pace at which housing supply changes indicate whether the options for buyers are increasing or decreasing. Difference Since Last Month -$ 20,090 ( -3.7%) Key Takeaway The list price of homes in Saint George has decreased by 3.7% since December. increase. The Midwest, he said, will likely see minimal price increases.. Renters have seen a steady, heady increase in rents over the past year, making their window for buying even more narrow. Additionally, both Wood and Eskic predict Utahs estimated 31,000-unit housing shortage will continue to keep home prices high, even if the state sees some price drops, so they expect Utahs housing affordability crisis to remain a persistent issue that is pricing out more than 75% of Utahns from affording the states median-priced home. But housing costs werent nearly as high back then, Eskic interjected. READ REDFIN'S, Do not sell or share my personal information. There are currently 8,551 residential homes for sale in the United States. So Branca wasnt expecting to buy his dream home. Nevertheless, at the time of the writing, the Utah housing market remains a sellers market due to the lack of inventory. However, it is also the third-most populous city in Utah, with a population of 116,961. We always have deceleration in the rate of increases as the cycle plays itself out. Nationwide, housing pandemic hot spots in the West have been among the first to see sale prices slashed. Love hunting, fishing, or anything outdoors? Yes! REDFIN IS COMMITTED TO AND ABIDES BY THE FAIR HOUSING ACT AND EQUAL OPPORTUNITY ACT. That is, after a summer of twist and turns, when prices peaked, interest rates went sky high, buyers were shocked out of the market, and sellers were saying, Wait, how come were not selling the home in two days? Blame remote work, not speculative bubble, Fed study says, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. Statewide, housing . There was a 98.0% sale-to-list price, down 2.7 points year over year. Average income: 74197. The bull market that has been in place for quite some time appears to have lost its momentum. There were 73 homes sold in December this . 10 Best Neighborhoods in the Nashville Real Estate Market 2019. At the very least, folks can expect some sort of moderation over the next few years but not a decline. Like West Valley City, West Jordan is considered to be a suburb of the capital city Salt Lake City. Joseph Branca, left, makes a drink while his partner Scotty Fletcher makes dinner at their apartment they rent in Salt Lake City on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022. If inflation continues to fall, as I expect it will, rates will continue to drop. So Branca said he made the decision to back out of the market, hoping to maybe consider buying again when interest rates and potentially prices come down. Copyright: 2023 Redfin. Half a million people from one state alone. This dataset excludes all rentals data. Over 2022, the Federal Reserve has been battling sky-rocking inflation with their number one weapon, interest rates. As mortgage rates are at record highs in 20 years by 7.08%. Home sales: 3,219 - 26.7% less than a year ago. Then everything changed. They didnt go down.. Look at housing prices, they were sticky. But now, those days of wild buyer demand and a frenzy of seller activity is over, and real estate agents outnumber active listings. The counties covered by this report added more than 35,000 new jobs over the past year, which was also a growth rate of 2.6%. Agents receive this question at least 10 to 15 times per week. Historically, even if the nation experiences economic troubles, Wood said Utahs strong employment economy typically makes the state resilient. Branca said if someone like him is struggling to buy, he cant imagine what its like for people living on lower incomes. The Typical U.S. Home Changes Hands Every 12 Years, Down From 2020 Peak, Market Recovery Hampered by High Housing Costs, Low Supply in January, Housing Market Update: Sale Prices Flatten, Demand for Mortgages Falls as Rates Climb, Housing Market Predictions 2023: A Post-Pandemic Sales Slump Will Push Home Prices Down For the First Time in a Decade, Redfin Predicts a More Balanced Housing Market in 2022, Housing-Market Mayhem: U.S. Home Sales Likely to Hit Record High of $2.5 Trillion In 2021, REDFIN IS COMMITTED TO AND ABIDES BY THE FAIR HOUSING ACT AND EQUAL OPPORTUNITY ACT. From peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. In 2022, Redfin itself went through two rounds of layoffs. A low or shrinking percentage of homes selling above list price suggests that the market is becoming less competitive.. The cops came and busted everyone.. 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